Shadowtraders Goes Over The Misery Index

2008-09-08 Word Count: 483 Category: Investments

Shadowtraders goes over the Misery Index

The Misery Index, evolved by economist Arthur Okun, is determined by adding the unemployment rate and the inflation rate together. Steeper unemployment rates and sharper inflation create economic and social costs.

http://www.shadowtraders.com has been tailing the Misery Index for a long time. Look Into their blog and see their commentaries on on-going economic circumstances. You can even register for a free webinar to find out what Shadowtraders senses about the forthcoming economic conditions.

The Misery Index is worked out during each president's term of office. In recent years, Bill Clinton enjoyed one of the lightest rates at 7.8. In this case, lower is better. Why? Lower unemployment and lower inflation. Both George H.W. Bust and George W. Bush terms have incurred very high Misery Indexes. The Misery Index under George H.W. Bush was 11.

That lands us to the current administration and the current Misery Index.

On Friday, September 8, 2008, the unemployment rate zoomed to 6.1. Along with a very bad inflation rate, the Misery Index now is getting to upwards of 11+. This is the same rate as the Misery Rate under George H.W. Bush. Shall we say like father like son?

It was the Misery Rate that got Bill Clinton elected and George H.W. Bush only 1 term in office.

For the last 8 months ongoing, there have not been new jobs created. In Point Of Fact, the account that showed up this last Friday brought out that the past months unemployment rate was altered even fuller than before. The Bureau of Labor Statistics doubled the first account for June job losses from 51,000 to 100,000. There have been 1.75 million job losses just since April.

Alterations for these studies are coming out monthly now. We can only assume that the genuine amount of unemployed people was not 84,000 but in all probability well over 100,000 for the month of August (when the report is changed next month).

A reported unemployment rate of 6.1% across America (and much much broader in many locations and some races) slaps of recession.

Ken Goldstein, an economist with the Conference Board, stated that "We've seen declines every month, all year long, right through August. But the declines have started to intensify, and that will continue through the end of the year, very likely into the first months of 2009."

Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Bank of America, said... "rapid rise in the unemployment rate points to a U.S. recession, as such an increase has never occurred outside of one."

Economist after economist is shrieking recession. Solely the Bush Administration resists to admit recession, and they began the recession in the first place. Just how steep does the Misery Index have to go before Bush acknowledges its a recession?

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Barbara Cohen and Shadowtraders combine to present their clients with the understanding to trade the Futures Market on a daily basis. Join them for a free webinar. For additional info, see Barbara Cohen at: www.shadowtraders.com